Monday, September 12, 2011

Remembering 9/11 and the Economic Impact





Ten years after the attacks I can remember vividly that day.  Students and teachers sat in amazement staring at the 27" televisions throughout the school.  Since that day I have had former students serve in Iraq and/or Afghanistan.  My children are only 8 and 4 so only know what we tell them .

The students I have in class now were about the age of my oldest when the World Trade Center and Pentagon were attacked.  Student memories each anniversary are a little bit different.  On the 20th anniversary I will have a group of students that only knows the event from a history book.

All tragedy has social, political, and economic impact.  The image below shows some of the lasting economic destruction from 9/11.



The immediate losses in terms of direct costs exceeded $30 billion.  The airline industry received federal aid of $15 billion.  In the days and weeks that followed the $25 billion a year New York tourist industry decreased to $12 billion for the first year.  The estimates for New Yorkers lost wages was $2.5 billion (Hubbard "The Economic Effects of 9/11").

The long term economic impact is varied and really impacts the country as a tax or extra cot related to regulation. 

New York Times Link

Travel

The effects of the tragedy on travel and tourism continue to be felt today, however, in the form of higher fuel costs, vastly stricter security and safety checks and procedures and the creation of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA).  The resulting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq also fed a lot of new business the airlines’ way, as flights were, and continue to be, chartered to transport troops to and from war zones.

Defense



The U.S. response to 9/11–the Iraq War and War on Terrorism–led to huge increases in military, defense and security spending that drove a projection of U.S. military power that’s only begun to wind down in the past year or two.  While this stimulated the U.S. economy and prevented or deterred subsequent terrorist acts, it has also been a primary contributor to ballooning U.S. government debt and deficits.

Energy


9/11′s lasting economic impact can also be clearly seen and felt across the energy sector, as well as in the heightened attention and sense of urgency attending energy policy formulation and practice across all levels of government and in the private sector.

9/11 drove home a more complete sense of the true, increasingly high and unaccounted for costs of U.S. dependence on oil and fossil fuels.  In addition to fueling interest and investment in renewable energy and clean technology, it has led many to reconsider how we produce electrical power and fuel, how and how much of it we use, how much of it we need and from what sources they are, could and should be produced.

Monetary Policy


Less apparent, 9/11 was a significant stepping stone in the evolution of U.S. monetary policy.  Occurring shortly after the bursting of the stock market “Internet Bubble,” the 9/11 attacks led then Fed chairman Alan Greenspan and colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board to once again drastically lower interest rates and loosen monetary policy.

That loose monetary policy was never curtailed, and that, along with other factors, fueled rapid debt creation and asset inflation, particularly in the housing and real estate markets.  All this came to an abrupt end in late 2007 and 2008 with the deflationary spiral that included the implosion and near collapse of the housing market, banking industry and financial system.
~ Gobankingrates.com

Comment below...What are your thoughts regarding 9/11 as a 7 year old?  How much longer will the economic impact be felt?  Which parts of what you read above surprise you?


  


















Friday, September 9, 2011

Highlights of the President's Economic Plan

Payroll tax cut from 6.2% to 3.1% for workers in 2012, up from a 2% reduction this year.
Cost: $175 billion.

Payroll tax cut from 6.2% to 3.1% for employers and eliminated for qualifying new hires in 2012, plus 100% expensing for new investments.
Cost: $70 billion.
Infrastructure investments, including modernizing schools and rehabbing vacant homes, and funding for states to rehire teachers and first responders.
Cost: $140 billion.
Extending unemployment insurance and new programs for jobless.
Cost: $62 billion.

TOTAL: $447 BILLION



Last night President Obama took to the national and international stage with a $400 billion + jobs bill.  A little bit more than half of the bill included either continuation of reduced taxes or new tax reductions.  

Approximately, $230 billion would be an extension of the payroll tax cut which is a split tax between the employer and the employee.  The standard level of payroll tax is 6.2% of every dollar earned by the employee and 6.2% of every dollar spent on employees.  With this reduction employees will have some extra money to spend (roughly $1,000 for the median income family) and businesses will also have some money to spend.  Since Americans are spending roughly 95% of their income this "can" provide a boost to a scared economy.

The president also looks to increase unemployment benefits to $62 billion through 2012 to alleviate long-term joblessness.  People having more money to spend and maintain their current lifestyle can help the economy as well.

Another piece of the proposal was to spend $140 on infrastructure and aid to the states.  Last months jobs report listed "0" net gains in employment.  The private sector actually added jobs but the government, at all levels, shed as many jobs to create a net effect of zero.

At this point, anything can help.  This is obviously a short term stimulus that some will argue is too small or too large.  Of course the extra spending will create an even larger short term deficit and add to the ballooning debt, but without short term tough choices now we could be headed for the dreaded double-dip...and not chips Seinfeld fans.

The Economist "A Call to Action" 
WSJ "President Unveils Bid to Spur Growth" 

Here is the word cloud from last nights discussion.